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Canada’s Population Growth Falls Sharply as Statistics Canada Revises Temporary Resident Estimates

Canada’s Population Growth Falls Sharply as Statistics Canada Revises Temporary Resident Estimates

By Akshay Satija•Editor in Chief•October 4, 2026•Updated October 4, 2026•4 min read
Today
#Canada Population#Statistics Canada#Canadian Immigration#Non-Permanent Residents#Immigration Data#Population Growth#Temporary Residents#Demographics

Key Takeaways

  • Canada's population reached 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026, up 189,425 people from a year earlier.
  • Statistics Canada introduced two new adjustments to better estimate non-permanent residents, including permit holders who leave Canada or remain while extensions are processed.
  • Non-permanent residents fell by 154,614 year over year to 2,779,774, while annual population growth slowed to its lowest percentage since 1915/1916.

Statistics Canada Updates Population Estimates

Statistics Canada has made a larger-than-usual revision to Canada's population estimates after introducing new adjustments to better measure non-permanent residents. The changes affect estimates dating back to July 1, 2021, and provide updated figures for Canada's recent population trends.

The agency's latest release, published September 23, 2026, estimates that Canada's population reached 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026. That represents an increase of 189,425 people, or 0.5%, from July 1, 2025. Statistics Canada says this is the lowest annual population growth rate since 1915/1916.

Why Statistics Canada Revised the Data

Statistics Canada introduced two new adjustments to its estimates of non-permanent residents.

The first uses Canada Border Services Agency entry and exit information to estimate, at an aggregate level, the proportion of permit holders who left Canada before their permits expired.

The second adjustment addresses people who remain in Canada while waiting for an extension of their permit to be processed. Statistics Canada said the number of permit extensions and processing times have made it increasingly important to account for people on maintained status.

The agency also said newer Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada administrative data contained substantially more records showing permit extensions than the information previously available when preliminary estimates were produced. As a result, Statistics Canada updated non-permanent resident and population estimates from July 1, 2021 onward.

Non-Permanent Residents Continue to Decline

The revised data show that Canada had 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on July 1, 2026. That was 154,614 fewer than a year earlier and represented 6.7% of the country's total population.

Statistics Canada reported that the annual decline was the largest decrease in non-permanent residents on a July-to-July basis since comparable records began in 1971/1972. The largest decreases during the period were among study permit holders and people holding both work and study permits.

The agency also estimated that Canada welcomed 368,224 new immigrants between July 1, 2025, and July 1, 2026. This was the fourth consecutive annual decline and the first time since 2021/2022 that the figure fell below 400,000.

Population Growth Has Slowed Sharply

Canada's population growth rate has changed considerably since the beginning of the decade. Annual growth reached 2.8% in 2023/2024 before slowing to 1.1% in 2024/2025 and 0.5% in 2025/2026.

Statistics Canada says the rapid changes in population growth since 2020 have been almost entirely attributable to changes in international migration. The latest figures therefore show a substantially slower pace of population growth than during the period of particularly high international migration.

TwikUp's Perspective

The revised figures highlight why population statistics need to be read alongside the methodology used to produce them. Statistics Canada does not simply replace one number with another without explanation. The agency has changed its estimation process to incorporate additional administrative information and better account for movements involving temporary permit holders.

For readers following Canada's immigration debate, the distinction between revised estimates, current population levels and government policy is important. The latest data clearly show slower population growth and fewer non-permanent residents, while the revision itself reflects improvements in how Statistics Canada measures these populations.

The figures are also preliminary and subject to the agency's regular revision process. Future releases may therefore update the current estimates as additional information becomes available.

Sources

Canada's Demographic Numbers Get a Major Update

New Statistics Canada data are changing the picture of Canada's recent population growth. Revised estimates now incorporate additional information on temporary permit holders, while the latest figures show a much slower pace of population growth than Canada recorded earlier in the decade.

Frequently Asked Questions

FAQ

What is Canada's population according to the latest Statistics Canada estimate?

Statistics Canada estimated Canada's population at 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people from July 1, 2025.

Why did Statistics Canada revise its population estimates?

Statistics Canada introduced two new adjustments to better estimate non-permanent residents, including permit holders who leave Canada before their permits expire and people remaining in Canada while waiting for permit extensions.

How many non-permanent residents were in Canada on July 1, 2026?

Statistics Canada estimated 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on July 1, 2026, representing 6.7% of Canada's population.

Has Canada's population growth slowed?

Yes. Annual population growth slowed from 2.8% in 2023/2024 to 1.1% in 2024/2025 and 0.5% in 2025/2026. Statistics Canada says the latest annual percentage growth was the lowest since 1915/1916.

Are the latest Statistics Canada population estimates final?

No. Statistics Canada's demographic estimates are preliminary and are subject to its regular revision process as additional information becomes available.

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