A statistical tie in the polls, a rout on election night
Olivia Chow has been re-elected mayor of Toronto, defeating Councillor Brad Bradford by more than 128,000 votes — a 13-point margin in a race the final polls called a coin flip. Broadcasters projected her win shortly after 10 p.m. on Monday, and Bradford conceded the same night.
The result was never really in doubt once the ballots started landing. An early Bradford lead evaporated as more polls reported, and Chow's share climbed steadily through the evening, from 51.7% in the first count to 54.2% in the final tally.
The final numbers
With all 1,431 polls reporting in the City of Toronto's unofficial count, Chow took 532,201 votes (54.16%) to Bradford's 404,013 (41.11%). Braeden Chow finished a distant third with 8,102 votes (0.82%) in a 53-candidate field. Chow carried 19 of the city's 25 wards.
In all, 982,660 ballots were cast — turnout of 45.8% of the city's 2,143,771 eligible voters. Advance voting had already signalled the energy: a record 222,550 ballots before election day, nearly double the 115,911 cast in advance in 2022.
The outcome is a sharp miss for the polls. Liaison's final survey had Bradford ahead 49–47, and the last poll average put Chow up just 2.6 points — she won by 13.
A full term, this time
Chow first won the mayor's office in the 2023 byelection triggered by John Tory's resignation, serving a shortened three-year term. This victory gives her a full four-year mandate — and a decisive one. Her re-election pitch rested on her record, including the "New Deal" that uploaded expressway costs to the province and tighter protections for renters, alongside promises such as capping transit fares and building more affordable rental housing. Bradford campaigned on affordability and safety, promising a property tax freeze, more police and a line-by-line audit of city finances.
The results remain unofficial until the City Clerk certifies them.
The Twikup Take
For months this was sold as Toronto's closest mayoral race in years — and it ended as a comfortable double-digit win. Bradford's late surge was real in the polls but never showed up at the ballot box, and Chow now has something she lacked in 2023: an unambiguous mandate. The question for her second term is whether she spends it.
Photo: Frank Sun / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0) — Olivia Chow, Mayor of Toronto, attends the premiere of "Nutcrackers" during the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival.