Key Takeaways
- Bank of Canada data shows the Canadian dollar at C$1.4145 per US$1 on September 25.
- The Bank says the Middle East conflict is keeping energy prices high and increasing upside risks to inflation.
- Statistics Canada is scheduled to release July 2026 GDP by industry data on September 29.
Canadian Dollar Reaches C$1.4145 Per US Dollar
Bank of Canada daily exchange-rate data shows the Canadian dollar weakening steadily against the US dollar during September.
The official rate moved from C$1.3866 per US$1 on September 11 to C$1.4145 on September 25. Over the same period, the Canadian dollar's value declined from US$0.7212 to US$0.7070.
The Bank describes these figures as indicative daily exchange rates based on aggregated price quotes from financial institutions. They are published each business day by 16:30 Eastern Time.
The latest official data therefore provides a clear reference point for the loonie's movement before the September 29 release of new Canadian economic data.
Middle East Conflict Keeps Energy Risks Elevated
The Bank of Canada has identified the continuing conflict in the Middle East as an important source of economic uncertainty.
In its September 2 monetary policy announcement, the Bank said the conflict was keeping energy prices high. It also warned that prolonged high oil prices and elevated refinery margins could increase the risk of higher energy costs spreading to other goods and services.
The Bank noted that inflation had been hovering around 3% in recent months, mainly because of higher gasoline prices. Excluding gasoline, inflation was 2.2% in July, while measures of core inflation remained close to 2%.
Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2.
The Bank said economic growth and inflation were evolving broadly in line with its July forecast, supporting the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged. At the same time, it highlighted increased upside risks to inflation and greater uncertainty surrounding growth.
The Bank's next scheduled interest-rate announcement is October 28, 2026, when it is also due to release its next Monetary Policy Report.
July GDP Data Due From Statistics Canada
Canada's economic outlook will receive another important data point on September 29, when Statistics Canada is scheduled to publish GDP by industry figures for July 2026.
Statistics Canada's previous release showed real GDP by industry increased 0.3% in June, with 13 of 20 industrial sectors contributing to the monthly expansion.
The agency's advance estimate had indicated that real GDP was essentially unchanged in July. The preliminary estimate was expected to be updated with the official release on September 29.
TwikUp's Perspective
The currency's recent movement needs to be viewed alongside several different economic forces rather than a single market factor.
For Canada, energy prices have particular importance because the country is a major energy producer and exporter. At the same time, higher energy costs can create inflation pressure domestically, which makes incoming economic data relevant to the Bank of Canada's policy outlook.
The September 29 GDP release will provide a more complete picture of economic activity after the preliminary July estimate. Together with inflation and financial-market developments, the data will help establish the broader economic backdrop ahead of the Bank's October policy decision.
For readers following the Canadian dollar, the official Bank of Canada exchange-rate series provides a consistent benchmark for tracking the currency rather than relying on individual intraday market quotations.